Conor J Rogers, Editor
Ideology: Moderate Republican | Writing from: Washington, DC
One of the favorite phrases of the gay rights movement seems to be ‘inevitable’ and the post California/Maine strategy this: ride it out and wait.
There seems to be a general agreement that this upcoming generation, my generation, (and those younger,) will simply usher gay marriage into the norm as we take over the voter rolls.
There’s good reason to hold this belief: over two-thirds of those under age 30 support gay marriage, and virtually the entire generation supports legal recognition of ‘some kind.’
We’re the complete reverse of our grandparents generation (where support for gay marriage hovers around 20%) and far more accepting than our parents generation (support has stayed consistently between 35 and 45%.)
There is no doubt the internet generation will bring about wide-spread acceptance of gays and lesbians (indeed, it already has among the nation’s colleges and universities.) But I’m willing to raise a question I’ve hardly even heard asked: what if our generation, like our parent’s generation, and nearly every generation before that, becomes more socially conservative as they grow older?
It’s not an often asked question but it’s surely worth consideration. Gay marriage is a new issue, and it’s nearly impossible to track how views progress and change on the issue since the mere concept of same-sex marriage didn’t really become a mainstream topic until the 1990s. We can’t be sure if support for gay marriage, like support for abortion, will start to drop off as young adults become parents, have their own children and become the “American Family” that groups like Focus On The Family and National Organization for Marriage seek to shore-up and push to the polls to ‘protect’ society against gay marriage.
How do we know that our friends, who are pro-gay marriage now, will not adopt the position many of our parents now have – socially accepting of our gay friends and family, but draw the line at marriage? Do we know, for sure, that when those who are now so-called ‘straight-allies’ go off and get married, at least some of them won’t suddenly have a new understand of marriage, or at the very least, change their mind and become susceptible to the arguments of a group like National Organization for Marriage? The answer that should grab the attention of equality activists is: no, we don’t.
Take abortion for example: polls taken in the 1980s and 1990s showed that women who are now currently in their 40s and 50s were overwhelmingly (60+ %) pro-choice. Polls taken today tell a much different story: These Women have ended up opposing Abortion in larger numbers.
There is no foreseeable way that such a large pro-gay marriage majority among the internet generation will suddenly revert to a pro-traditional marriage majority – the question is likely better phrased this way: how large of a majority will marriage equality activists have? I would caution any activist from assuming their majority among the current 18-30somethings will be any larger than it is right now. Those who haven’t been swayed by college, family, or workplace experiences and friends yet likely aren’t going to budge, and it’s fair to say that at least some young adults who are currently pro-gay marriage may align themselves with more socially conservative causes in the future, vis-à-vis abortion.
There is one statistical certainty that works in gay rights activists’ favor: when someone personally knows a gay person, they are three-times more likely to support gay marriage. Simply coming out has had an immeasurable effect when it comes to breaking into the baby-boomer generation, and likely explains to huge wave of support gay marriage enjoys among the internet generation. Plus, when an anti-gay speaker gets booed off stage at CPAC, you know things can’t be too bad.
These questions have no answer because only time will be able to tell, and with no historical statistics or examples to pour-over, whether or not the internet generation will shift to the right on its gay friends will be standing question over at least the next decade.
This question does, however, bring new urgency to the cause of marriage equality supporters: just because equality has a lead among young people now, doesn’t mean it can be counted on for the future – they may want to start shoring up their supporters as the oldest of the iGen starts to pop the question.
probably my favorite article you have written great job! I’m wondering if perhaps there will be things we choose not to accept when we get old. That was a dumb sounding statement, so an example I shall provide. After some time, a generation began accepting (or at least pretending to accept) mixed race relations and yes they became more socially conservative more directed at some more “modern” ideas. Not saying gay marriage is modern but its like the today topic, and hopefully it will make it through our descent into curmudgeondry because therell be something else to take its place. This point may make no sense, but it may provide a small sliver of hope
It’s about time someone raised this question. I’m of the older generation and I think it’s quite silly all you kids have basically “decided” what you’re going to do with Marriage and redefining it, and not a single one of you is married. I’d say its near impossible to understand a marriage without having been in one.
I understand the civil rights argument, I understand civil unions and domestic benefits, but I don’t understand the arguments re: children, family and redefinition…there’s a good chance that when your generation gets married up you might change your minds a bit about what it all really means – substantively, not rights-wise.
Dear Bout Time: Thank you. Just as they can’t conceive of the nature of a lifetime bond that produces offspring because they haven’t been in one, they haven’t paid taxes or a mortgage either–they haven’t owned, and had to defend, property. So all of these arguments and “sophisticated”(liberal) political stands lack real experience. When they’ve been passed over for a job by the gay guy/gal; when the gay people up the street: two incomes, no kids, live high on the hog and put it in their faces, when the “gay marriages” break up and recombine with the same, or more velocity as the hetero marriages, then the real consequences of this risible social dream, that a marriage can be “gay” will be understood. And then they might say “What have we wrought?!”
This article implies that our generation will get more conservative relative to today’s context, which is absolutely ridiculous. Indeed, as age cohorts get older they appear to become conservative — BUT ONLY IN RELATION TO YOUNGER AGE COHORTS. Thus it is not surprising that we see gradually rising percentages of non-bigots in younger cohorts rather than a sharp magical dividing line between those 18-29 and everyone else.
Conservativism and liberalism are, as I implied earlier, relative measures, not absolutes. A social conservative today would be a social liberal even twenty or thirty years ago. The social issues that defined our parents’ generation — civil rights and anti-miscegenation laws, for example — are now non-issues because our parents’ generation was socially liberal for its time (though, as we see today, not as liberal within a more modern context).
Noah,
This article *does not* imply that our generation will get more conservative — it simply asks the question. Regarding your point about people getting more conservative “relative” to the younger groups….that completely ignores the points I made about abortion. This group of Women was once 2/3 pro choice..now they’re split. That’s not a relative change, that’s an actual change.
Conor,
I’m saying that the idea that our generation will grow more conservative with regard to same-sex marriage is nonsensical. Obviously, if we give up and stop trying, the O&Ds of the world will drive us back to 1890, where they want society to stay.
Additionally, as with the Civil Rights movement of the 1950s (and in contrast to the abortion movement), there is a natural constituency for gay rights – gay people. As bigotry against gay men and women decreases nationwide, I suspect that more and more people will come out of the closet. And when people come out of the closet, the people around them become more accepting of gay people and supportive of equal rights.
Furthermore, it should be noted that acceptance of homosexuality has increased nationwide despite a massive resurgence of religion in American society, and especially extremely conservative religion.
I really enjoyed this column, Conor.
I remember once coming across this quote, from Martin Luther King, Jr., which perhaps answers the question you raise in the headline of your article: “Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. And so we must straighten our backs and work for our freedom. A man can’t ride you unless your back is bent.”
Whoa, Peter, wait a little now. We should stop to consider, in a post concerning gays and gay marriage, the import of you metaphor “A man can’t ride you unless your back is bent.” I’m not sure you wanted to employ that particular imagery!
Noah: I’m so proud! The O & D handle, well cared-for and fashioned over these many months, has been raised to an icon, a force, a constellation of associations, stands and values: I’m up there with the Band-aid, the kleenex, the Coke, I’m a brand name that has taken over the identification of the category!
I think I might cry. My cup runneth o’er!
Conor, I often wonder how my opinions will fare over time. As Bout Time pointed out, many of us have staunch opinions and decisions about our futures that we really can’t expect to hold on to. I for one don’t like the idea of marriage as an institution and “swear” that I won’t sign a legal document, but truth be told–I will get married and sign the contract and let the government give me a break even though I have some problems with the arrangement in principle. But, for some reason I think there is something different in the case of gay marriage/gay rights/sexual equality etc etc etc and the “conservativation” that may come with age. I think I’m far more likely to become fiscally conservative than socially conservative as I grow older, and I wonder how much that has to do with our generation’s separation from the traditional values of the nuclear family. I don’t mean to say that we don’t believe in family anymore–not at all–but rather I think it’s fair to say that there is a definite disparity between our parents’ visions of the family and our familial realities. Divorce is hardly taboo these days, for example. I don’t know…perhaps there is a real structural change, an actual shift in paradigm when it comes to how we view family arrangements.
noah, don’t be so sure of others your age as you are of yourself. many in my generation ferociously promoted free love and communal living. once they had their own daughters, their minds became closed to such a “new way” that focuses only on personal belief and ignores traditional wisdom garnered over hundreds of generations before them. your’s is not the first generation to suggest that the old ways are stupid, bigoted, not intellectually defendable. examine the quote above from MLK. he was a very wise man. culture’s rarely change as quickly as one generation. the changes that occurred in the last half of the 20th century and have now been accepted do not mean the pace of that change will continue. you can’t predict the future, you can only wonder about it. that is what conor is doing.
here’s my quote – “a broad mind and a narrow waist change places as you grow older”