Conor J Rogers, Editor-In-Chief
Ideology: Republican | Writing from Washington, DC
Rogers is the former Executive Director of the New Jersey Teenage Republicans and Chairman of the Bergen County, New Jersey Teenage Republicans.
There’s something curious going on in the New Jersey gubernatorial race: Christopher Daggett. An Independent candidate, the former EPA administrator and businessman is surging in the polls in a way that would make even Ross Perot jealous. Daggett’s sudden jump from the low-single digits over the summer to 15-18% in most polls has thrown a wrench into the New Jersey Governor’s race that once seemed all-but called for Chris Christie.
As of this morning, Daggett comes in at a startling 16% in a large-sample Rasmussen Poll conducted over the past few days. His support, though not concrete, is solidifying and rising in the wake of the high-profile surprise endorsement by the New Jersey Star-Ledger. As his poll numbers rise, both Christie’s and Corzine’s continue to fall back down.
Though his rise in the polls is being labeled ‘insurgent’ and a ‘surprise’ by New Jersey media, Daggett, or anyone like him, is a long time coming for New Jersey politics. In a state where the Sierra Club occasionally endorses Republicans, GOP congressman support cap-and-trade and Democrats openly admit wanting to raise taxes – a realignment like this was inevitable. New Jersey’s voters are by and large fiscally moderate-to-conservative, socially liberal and nearly unanimously fed-up with the nation’s highest tax burden. Christie will lower taxes – but he’s been labeled a social conservative. Corzine is in line with most of the state’s liberal social positions, but is universally panned for skyrocketing property taxes and raising the sales tax ahead of the recession (something he calls leadership, and the GOP has successfully branded a commerce-killer).
Enter Independent Daggett, a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage environmentalist businessman with conservative tax proposals, and a centrist platform. In a state that blames everyone from Former Governor Christie Whitman, George W Bush and Jon Corzine for the current economic and budget crisis, Daggett’s rising-star becomes more understandable.
As with any surging campaign, the higher Daggett’s numbers go, the more visible he becomes, and the more visible a candidate becomes, the higher his numbers go. His initial climb is directly correlated with the severity of Corzine and Christie’s attacks on each other. The more and more Corzine v. Christie became a typical New Jersey mud-slinging, the fresher and appealing the Independent ticket became.
Corzine and Christie’s biggest problem is that Daggett is an average New Jersey voter, and he wants to be the average New Jerseyan’s Governor – and no party platform is going to get in his way. He doesn’t care for either party, and has crafted his platform around what the state needs, not what a primary electorate wants – and an increasing number of New Jersey voters are starting to agree.
Who’s Going to Win?
Everything from endorsements by local papers in the vote-rich New York suburbs or even Michael Bloomberg (popular in the northern suburbs) could make or break any one of the candidates. Christie and Corzine’s conundrum is a familiar one for any candidate who has ever faced a surging independent: attack him, and he’s legitimized…ignore him and risk falling poll numbers. The silver lining for Christie’s campaign is that, according to Rassmussen, nearly half of Daggett’s supporters could change their mind before Election Day, and 60% of them would choose Christie over Corzine. Seeing that the election is centered on current Governor Jon Corzine and Daggett supporters have already decided against the incumbent, a rush of support from Daggett to Corzine seems almost impossible.
The number to watch for is 20%. If Daggett can make headlines by getting above the 20-mark, his support may solidify even further, and convince New Jersey voters that he is a viable candidate he may begin a surprise jump towards a winning combination (see Jesse Ventura’s Minnesotan election). Also keep in mind that if this election is as tight as it looks, adding in a Daggett surge, a candidate can feasibly win with just upwards of 30% of the vote.
Amid all these loose ends, only two things are certain in this campaign: 1. New Jerseyans know they are overtaxed and aren’t happy about it. 2. Corzine and Christie’s attacks on each other are only going to get louder and more intense as the election draws closer. The very same partisan hacking that drove Daggett from single to double-digits.
The big question: How high will Chris Daggett go, and who will he bring down with him?
Corzine needs to be thrown out of office on November 3rd. The ONLY candidate who can is Chris Christie. Christie is the only person who realizes we need to cut both taxes and spending. Daggett admits he will expand taxes. And Corzine still insists on universal pre-k and in state tuition for illegals. As to Daggett, we have heard his song and dance, just from Jon Corzine. A few years ago there was a question on the ballot increasing the sales tax to work on the property tax issue. We haven’t seen that yet so I’m skeptical.
Mr. Christie is the only viable candidate who seems willing to bring less government interference in our lives. We need to change governors.
Not to mention Christie is the only candidate willing to combat the harsh drug war in this State.
I hope that if an independent can win in New Jersey, then maybe we’ll start to break down this two-party system.
I liked Daggett until the last debate. He could not name any Supreme Court Justice and gave an answer full of BS platitudes on what a judge should be like and do. Since the Governor nominates justices for the NJ SC, this lack of understanding of the judicial branch is very troubling.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09NJGovGECvC.xml&choices=Christie,Corzine&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=Christie-BF0014,Corzine-2247AF,Other-A69A37,Not%20Voting-1B8F3E
Since Daggett’s rise, Corzine’s numbers have stayed relatively stable and even increased a little, while Christie’s have gone down.
It’s hard to argue that Daggett is taking away from both of them with these poll numbers.
I’d love to see Daggett win on principle alone and I think Christie is more than a bit too far to the right for a state like New Jersey, but I don’t know if this is the year that an independent WILL win. While Daggett would be my first choice (note: I don’t live in Jersey,) I think I will take solace in the fact that the polls Alec cites show my second favorite benefiting from Daggett being in the race.
As someone who does not want Chris Christie to win, I’d caution against taking any solace in the latest round of polls. According to Survey USA’s latest poll on the 15th, nearly 18% of registered Democrats support Daggett. In a decidedly Democratic state like New Jersey (registered Democrats made up 43% of the poll’s sample size), that number amounts to a lot of Democrats planing to vote for Daggett. Only 17% of Republicans (who comprise 33% of the poll’s sample size), on the other hand, plan on voting for Daggett.
Furthermore, Daggett seems to be doing surprisingly well among black voters. Per the same poll, he’s picking off 16% of this demographic. If Christie loses, it won’t be because of Chris Daggett.
I’m actually looking at an average of ALL polls taken since July (so for the past four months).
So odd how Daggett’s rise coincides exactly with Christie’s decline…
If Christie loses, it will be SOLELY because of Daggett/Republicans who vote for Daggett.