Tyler Bilbo, Staff Writer
Ideology: Yellow Dog Democrat | Writing from: Georgetown University
Despite the favorable environment, Republicans may not even net a single seat in the Senate.
I’ve always been an obsessive follower of electoral politics at the Congressional level. As the national climate continues to shift in favor of the Republicans, Senate Democrats look prepared to experience their first net loss in seats since 2004. This, however, is far from a guarantee and in spite of this opportune climate for Senate Republicans; their Democratic counterparts could potentially expand their supermajority. In this preliminary breakdown of 2010, I’ll take a look at the seats that I think are ripe for a pickup.
1.) New Hampshire (R)
Judd Greg, New England’s only remaining male Republican in Congress, is stepping down. The Republicans have a first tier candidate in Attorney General Kelly Ayotte who has the strong backing of Gregg and most of the state’s Republican establishment. New Hampshire, however, is rapidly trending Democratic at a pace that exceeds the rest of the country. In 2006, for example, Republicans lost their 98 seat majority in the state’s House of Representatives. Assuming Ayotte is the nominee, she’ll face Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes.
September, 2009 Prediction: Democratic pickup.
2.) Missouri (R)
Republicans will also struggle to hold this open seat being vacated by longtime Senator Kit Bond. This race will most likely feature a clash of two Missouri dynasties. On the Democratic side, Robin Carnahan, the daughter of the late Governor Mel Carnahan and former Senator Jean Carnahan, will run against longtime Congressman Roy Blunt (father of former governor Matt Blunt). Up until this current Congress, Blunt was the top Republican whip and his reputation as an entrenched insider won’t help in this political climate. Blunt will presumably face a primary challenge from a less established candidate who will exploit his status as an entrenched insider.
September, 2009 Prediction: Democratic Pickup
3.) Nevada (D)
Nevadans don’t like Harry Reid. His approval ratings have long been in the toilet but his Republican adversaries have failed to cook up a capable opponent. Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader has racked up an enormous war chest . A legitimate Republican candidate in this Democratic trending state must be a capable fundraiser who can effectively counter Reid’s vast resources.
September, 2009 Prediction: Republican pickup
4.) Arkansas (D)
Arkansas is a confusing state. At the national level, the state has long been trending Republican but unlike neighboring states like Tennessee and Oklahoma, that trend has not translated into more Republican success further down the ballot. If Blanche Lincoln looses, however, the 2010 elections might finally signal that Arkansas is realigning with the rest of its neighbors. Lincoln is a tenacious fundraiser who will be tough to beat but a recent poll has her losing to Republican State Senator Gilbert Baker by two points.
September, 2009 Prediction: Republican Pickup
As of right now, I only see these four seats changing hands. Although states like Arkansas and New Hampshire couldn’t be more different, the upcoming contests in both states highlight the changing political climate in each state. On the other hand, Missouri and Nevada reflect the challenges that entrenched insiders are bound to face. While I fully expect the Republicans to gain a significant number of seats in the House, it’ll take a miracle for the Republicans to capture the Senate.
Tyler,
Though NH has been trending left – don’t you think it’s famous anti-government streak might take down the Democrat? You can be sure the RNC will brand them as “Public Option Cap-and-trade Democrats” and make government a big issue in NH.
Ayotte has both the outsider edge and has no voting record to be turned into “flip-flop” commercials – I’d say she’s got the upper hand in NH.
I think “tea party” turnout may help the GOP in Missouri, and I’m surprised how quickly you wrote off Blanche Lincoln.
Also: What about Barbara Boxer vs Carly Fiorina?
Conor,
I think you’re overestimating New Hampshire’s libertarian streak. Yes, it exists but if it could carry Ayotte all the way like you suggest than how do you account for the state’s sharp shift to the left since 2006? New Hampshire had an effective Republican organization that dominated that state for years and that dominance finally ended three years ago. Consequently, New Hampshire has started to realign with the rest of the region. I’m not saying New Hampshire = Massachusetts but I think the last couple election cycles show an irreversible trend at this point. I only see Ayotte winning in a scenario where the Republicans pick up at least five or six other seats.
The national climate would have to turn against the Democrats in an unprecedented manner in order for Boxer to lose. Aside from her ability to self-fund, Fiorina’s a weak candidate and in a state like California, the GOP has to find something better than a failed CEO. Obama still has a net approval of 29% in the state (survey usa) so Fiorina’s strategists are going to have to get creative and move away from the anti-Obama narrative that the rest of the party plans to run on.
I agree that Missouri SHOULD stay in GOP hands. Roy Blunt, however, is a weak candidate who hails from the state’s strategically insignificant Southwest, a Republican stronghold that won’t swing an election. His son was a horribly unpopular governor and his long tenure in the House gives Carnahan more than enough material. Of course, a credible primary opponent could surface. Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who is considering running, would be a better candidate, IMO.