Deval Patrick’s ‘Bush-like’ poll numbers give the Massachusetts GOP and Independents a shot at the governorship. Michele Walk examines how and why it will happen.
Michele Walk, Staff Writer
Ideology: Moderate | Writing From: Boxford, MA
It is looking increasingly unlikely that Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick will face an easy campaign in 2010, and it is near safe to say he will probably not be re-elected. Patrick’s numbers are slipping to what has been called “Bush-level:” in May, his disapproval rating was at almost 70% – a number that will surely skyrocket when the 1.5% sales tax increase to 6.5%, supported by Patrick, is implemented in August. Patrick promised in 2006 not to raise taxes and curtail wasteful spending – and has done neither. While he does have Obama campaign czar David Plouffe working for him, Massachusetts voters will likely be unresponsive to his lofty rhetoric and toss him and his Obama-like speeches out of the State House.
Though the election for Governor of Massachusetts hardly has national implications – the fact that Gov. Patrick was elected on a platform that was widely considered to be the ‘sandbox test’ for the Obama method is now facing dismal approval numbers, and voters asking “where is the hope and change?” Deval Patrick’s campaign makes this the first re-election test of the Obama method.
The main challengers to Patrick are former Harvard-Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker and current Treasurer Tim Cahill. Baker, who is considered by some to be a star in the MA GOP, recently declared his candidacy to the delight of Massachusetts Republicans. It is Cahill, though, who was the big surprise: in the weeks before his declaration, the majority of those who speculated about his candidacy assumed that he would run against Deval Patrick in the Democratic primary. Instead, he left the Democratic Party and will run as an independent.
Current poll data has Charlie Baker trailing behind Deval Patrick by 5%, with Patrick garnering about 40% of the vote. However, as mentioned above, you can expect that number will begin to slip in August due to the sales tax increase. As of May, about 55% of Democrats disapproved of Patrick, and that group will probably split their vote between Cahill and Baker. Patrick will probably still receive 30-35% of the vote, Cahill 15-20%, and Baker 40-45% with the remainder going to independent candidates. It’s hard to find a way that that Cahill will take votes away from Baker; but as a former Democrat, Cahill will take votes away from Patrick.
Cape Cod convenience store czar Christie Mihos is currently also running for governor. Mihos, a moderate libertarian who ran in 2006 as an independent and received 7% of the vote, is now running as a Republican. There is a growing call within the Massachusetts GOP for Mihos to run for either Treasurer or Lieutenant Governor and let Baker battle it out against Cahill and Patrick.
This would be a smart decision: while Mihos has been polling neck-and-neck with Patrick, the poll numbers are also relatively outdated. Since their publication on June 29th, Baker and Cahill have both officially declared their candidacy. Previously, Mihos was the only opposition candidate, making Mihos numbers more about opposition to Deval Patrick rather than support.
Baker is still a very new name to many Massachusetts voters, but I predict that once voters learn more about him he will surpass Patrick. Baker is a fiscal conservative and a moderate on social issues. His experience in the health care field will help him greatly; however, in order to win, he needs to emphasize his fiscal conservatism. As I have previously written about, Republicans in 2010 and 2012 cannot run on “I’m not a Democrat/not incumbent X” platforms but rather need to create strong platforms that can stand on their own that are based on fiscal responsibility. The worst thing that Cahill and Baker (and Republicans in general) could do in 2010 would be to take the Democrats’ slipping poll numbers for granted. It is also important that a candidate not run on a broad-sweeping platform that promises to “save” our state government: Patrick did that in 2006, and since then he has been negligent of his responsibilities and largely useless as a Governor.
Newspapers on both sides of the aisle have been critical of Patrick, and I would not be surprised if the Boston Globe (the largest paper; left-leaning) endorsed Tim Cahill. The Boston Herald, a conservative paper in the vein of the New York Post, will certainly endorse Charlie Baker. Though it looks now as if Baker could win, we still don’t know a lot about him. If damaging information comes out about him, it is possible that Baker, Cahill and Patrick could each receive a third of the vote, making for an interesting race. Regardless, I do not expect to see Patrick re-elected.
Deval Patrick will be defeated in 2010; the question is, by how much?